Report
Uncertainty Index: Q1 2026
The Pigment Uncertainty Index is a new initiative that surveys finance leaders from the US, UK, France, and Germany. We track indicators of uncertainty and sources of disruption on a quarterly basis and provide detailed analysis across a variety of different dimensions.
Key findings
- Businesses reported 9.3% revenue growth over the past year, and expected growth for the year ahead rises to 11.2% - an optimistic outlook for the year ahead
- But growth prospects seem fragile: many of the segments predicting high growth in the next year also have the highest level of uncertainty
- Perceived uncertainty is increasing, with 41.5% of respondents saying it is higher than six months ago, even as revenue expectations remain strong
- AI maturity is the best predictor of growth in the past year. Leading firms are achieving better outcomes across the board and reported 12% higher growth in the past year over laggards
- But, execs may be overestimating their organizations’ AI maturity. As respondents become more senior, their tendency to identify their organization as mature increases
- Companies are reforecasting frequently, averaging 39 forecasts a year, while leading AI firms are doing 70, suggesting AI is helping finance teams respond faster to change